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Home Prices In Hercules and Pinole Expected To Rise This Year

Real estate website forecasts price increases for 2013 in all but one Bay Area zip code

Home prices in Pinole and Hercules will rise about 4 to 6 percent this year, according to a study done by an online real estate site.

The site, zillow.com, predicts home prices in 244 of the 245 zip codes in the Bay Area will rise in 2013. The only exception will be the 94515 area in Calistoga, according to a story in the San Francisco Chronicle.

The story says the biggest reason for the projected price increase is a lack of homes for sale on the market.

Even with the increase, prices are still well below the peak prices of a few years ago in most zip codes.

Here is the individual zip code data for the Hercules-Pinole area.

Zip Code Dec. 2012 median Dec. 2013 projection Increase % decrease from peak price 94547 $328,400 $348,650 6.2%  -50 percent 94564 $283,100 $294,268 3.9% -51.5 percent
Kim February 20, 2013 at 10:29 PM
4-6%? It appears they have gone up 25% or more already since fall.
Phil Simmons February 21, 2013 at 01:35 AM
Kim, Afraid not. Hercules has not risen anywhere close to the increases in other Bay area communities. Even places that have fallen as far and had equally bad foreclosure rates as Hercules have increased more than Hercules in the past year. We are lagging behind. It is my belief that the lag is in part due to the bad press that our town has had for a decade concerning its inability to develop correctly. And, it is in part due to the practices of the realtors that are working through the foreclosure problems.
Kim February 21, 2013 at 04:10 PM
Well Phil that makes sense but the prices have gone way up from the bottoming out time and I was wondering why with all the press and money problems the city is having. So other cities have jumped more than 70-100k per house? I have noticed homes in Benicia, Martinez, and Pleasant Hill are certainly more expensive than here come to think of it.
Susan D.Keeffe February 21, 2013 at 04:26 PM
Kim, Not here. Check Zillow, we have gone up about 2%.. Type in your address and see what comes up. It also will give you a chart showing your house and Hercules as a whole going back ten years. Aldo, our property taxes are based on January values. We get that info in July.
Kim February 21, 2013 at 05:57 PM
I'm going by recent sales on Realtor.com Zillow seems a bit behind. I've watched it on my street and houses have gone up about 75,000 since July. My friend wants to buy here and I've been trying to help her but prices have jumped and every house has 3-5 offers within the first few days. Mind you they aren't up to pre bubble prices but they are up 50k or more from the bottoming out point. I think some of it is due to the return of the flip which long term will make the neighborhoods more appealing.
Susan D.Keeffe February 22, 2013 at 04:40 AM
The newspaper confirmed. Zillow is pretty close to the mark. If your area has gone up that much it will be reflected accurately by Zillow and with local realtors. You can always call the County Assessor. The large surge, according to the paper is in the South Bay, SF, and lately Oakland and Berkeley. Contra Costa county remains the second lowest in the Bay Area with Solano County being the lowest. Also areas that went down the least have been the first to recover. Some are back to peak prices. Hercules remains almost 50% down from the peak in 2007-8. It is estimated area code 94547 will go up 6% in 2013. Zillow gives a range for each home. If you compare actual sales prices with their guesstimates they are very close. There are many factors keeping us down. We had a lot of building at the peak with inflated prices resulting in a high number of defaults and foreclosures - we still are working through those. Areas already built out weren't hit as hard and went down far less.
Susan D.Keeffe February 22, 2013 at 04:44 AM
Also, there aren't enough homes on the market to feed the demand as there Re still too many under water homes so people are hanging on and not selling. The flippers have been going strong for at least three years but that may be slowing. The hot market right now is in condos. The Waterfront is also up from a year ago by about $40k but we are still far be.ow the peak as is the rest of Hercules. Our bad press hasn't helped and realtors that low ball just to make a sale isn't helping us either.
Kim February 22, 2013 at 06:29 AM
The Waterfront seems low. The high end homes have not rebounded as quickly. Here is what I found: Beryl value on Zillow is 366k, sold for 419k Falcon value is 335k on zillow, sold for 403k Violet valued at 317k, sold for 380k Silver Maple valued at 340k, sold 378k Titan valued at 390k, sold 431k Canterbury, value is 285k, sold 355k Again, if I look at neighboring communities beyond West County prices are mostly high 400s and above but this is a rather large sudden jump probably fueled by lack of inventory and low interest rates.
Patty O'Day February 22, 2013 at 06:33 PM
I have always been told that Zillow was off by at least 10%. Your research seems to verify this. It looks like your examples show between 10% to 17% variance. And in every case, Zillow was lower than the sales price. Yea!!!!!
Susan D.Keeffe February 22, 2013 at 06:33 PM
Kim, I think you are right. Check sales addresses on Promenade, Earnest and Railroad. Also check out the Bayside and Bayfront listings. I don't know the stats but the foreclosure rates in all three communities has been high and of course is keeping prices down, I am still losing neighbors and friends to short sales and foreclosures. I hope the low supply and end of short sales pushes us up so we don't lose any more!
Susan D.Keeffe February 22, 2013 at 06:58 PM
Patty, I agree they always seem to be about 10% low but then when I type in my home I see they are providing a range and are selecting a number from that range. I don't know how they arrive at that one number out of the range. They have a formula which includes all the short sales and foreclosures though.
Kim February 22, 2013 at 09:45 PM
I don't know. They are strange times. People are still losing their homes but banks are auctioning them for cash rather than doing bank owned sales. That you can see on zillow. Some people are able to do the Harp or a traditional refi and are staying in their homes. I'm thinking when interest and supply goes up, prices may go down some short term. I fear if we lose police and service like after school daycare and the pool, we won't be able to give our houses away! I'm almost ready to give in on the tacky and distracting LED sign to get some money in here.
Susan D.Keeffe February 22, 2013 at 10:19 PM
Kim, Oh no! Not that! I do not want tacky LED - what would THAT do to our long term home values?? I'm going to think positive and hope Zillow is right at a growth of up to 6% in our values this coming year. So far its been creeping up a little over 1% a month. But if the number of foreclosures and short sales goes down dramatically, and the availability becomes tight, we may go up more. I'm hoping....
Phil Simmons February 23, 2013 at 12:40 AM
Yea, We might end up with services like Danville and Lafayette and no body would want to move here. ( - :
Kim February 23, 2013 at 05:27 AM
Do they have sheriff in Lafayette and Danville? I see a big difference here in the police service we have versus the sheriff service I had when I lived in Crockett and Rodeo in years past.
Giorgio C. February 23, 2013 at 05:47 AM
Phil, Our recent appraisal has our value returning to where it was 4 years ago. This is huge! Home values in Hercules are increasing--horayyyyyyy!
Phil Simmons February 23, 2013 at 06:11 AM
Kim, Yes both Danville and Lafayette contract with the Sheriff, as does Orinda. They also offer swim facilities, Danville's is through the High School. It does not have WCCSDD to rely on or pay 7 tax assessments on like Hercules. Danville is stuck with private daycare too. So, if we lost our daycare we might end up in as bad a shape as Danville.
Phil Simmons February 23, 2013 at 06:12 AM
Giorgio, My home price is just over 1/2 of what it was 4 years ago and only down 20% from where it was 10 years ago. yipeeee
Phil Simmons February 23, 2013 at 06:13 AM
But I am sure that our property tax appraisals will "lead" the way to a recovery.
Susan D.Keeffe February 23, 2013 at 04:02 PM
Giorgio , Home prices crashed in 2008. Look at the charts. Folks who purchased at the peak 2005-2007 are down almost 5o%. Folks who bought years ago are still above purchase price if they bought in the 70's and 80's but if they refi'd at the peak they are underwater. Don't get me wrong, prices are definitely moving up. It appears we have hit bottom and the long awaited recovery has begun. But its slower in Hercules for the reasons already discussed. But I'm hopeful, finally.
Cornhusker Fan April 19, 2013 at 09:57 PM
Hercules home prices have gone up a lot already. For example, a single family home on Catalina Drive with mostly concrete backyard, listed at $429,000, sold at $465,xxx. It was 8.72% over the asking price.

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